Phil Mirzoev's blog

Friday, November 4, 2011

Greece will fail without euro? Just another cynical myth?

German fat cats cherished by the German Govt loaned to the Greek fat cats cherished by Greek Govt, now all the cats want the Greek people to COVER those sweet 'deals'.
I understand that the main headache of the so called 'euro leaders' now is to SAVE THEIR COMMERCIAL BANKS and the old financial capitalism model in broader terms, and do it preferably 1. at the expense of the taxpayers - that is PEOPLE 2. preferably at the expense of the Greek people - not the Germans of French. Therefore it stands to reason that the demagogic rhetoric of Sarkozy, Merkel etc offers for free a whole range of insipid and banal bogeyman stories and myths, like 'Greece will fail without euro', 'If euro fails Europe fails' (good that Europe managed to have lived thousands of years thanks to the fact that there were no euro)' or 'Germany was a great beneficiary of eurozone and euro' or 'the main problem is the lack of the leadership' and such like tales for the 5-year-olds for which they take the people of Europe. They - those euro leaders - don't have ANY legitimacy for the Greek people, they were not elected by the Greek people, and they in reality COULDN'T CARE LESS about the Greek people and their welfare. All that they are really now concerned about is the salvation of their 'too big to fail' BANKS and their own terms in office.
Why not to leave the eurozone reintroduce drahma and devalue? Quite possibly it should have been done a year or two before (without amassing extra debt in the form of the bail-out tranches). It seems that eurozone (in reality banks) now depends on Greece much more that Greece does on the eurozone. All those myths about Greek catastrophes in case of leaving eurozone just mask the catastrophe of the eurozone in case of Greece leaving. In practice NOTHING could be ever worse for the Greek economy then what we have already EXCEPT the proposed deal by those 'leaders'. In reality:
1. exports of Greece will be boosted by devaluing through drachma.
2. Tourism will be boosted for the same reason - price decrease through devaluing.
3. Restructuring of the debts in a much more comfortable way for Greece
4. No 'euro tax' burdens on small and medium businesses - there will be all the usual tools in the hands of the government to ease the life of the businesses which now they cannot do because of the 'euroburden' of saving German and French banks (which are too big to fail) (as a matter of fact what has been imposed on Greece so far by those 'euro-rescue crew' from an economic point of view looks like giving laxative for diarrhea; this once more demonstrated that euro-leaders and the very structure of this autocratic bureaucratic structure considers the people(les) not more than a piece of shit)
5. The cessation of this vicious endless dependence of further selling euro bonds to get money (cause Greece doesn't have its own money) and disappearance of the very temptation which had driven before the successive governments of Greece to borrow ever more and more (to finance their terms in office through injections) will lead to a much more responsible and flexible economic policy and attitude on the part of the following governments.
6. External PRIVATE investments into the REAL SECTOR (tourism, food industry, services things which really influence the welfare of 80% of the nation) in Greece will as likely as not RISE (in contrast to what is preached by the 'euro doctors') because of the drop of property prices, special conditions created by the new less 'euro-addictive' government and because the 'malignant investments' in the form of the unending stream of euro channeled by governmental institutions and their close affiliates (and overriding any really natural free-market competitive investments) would be stopped AT LAST. It is very important to remember that the conditions when the stream of 'crazy money' going from outside through the privileged state or state-protected financial institutions is much more significant that the much thinner trickle of consumer demand money going into the real sector, are less than auspicious for the major part of the population, especially in a real-sector underdeveloped economy like Greece (in essence it is a variant of the so called Dutch disease, but where the influx of 'non-working' capital is provided not by the resource exports but by a seemingly bottomless source of debt financing). In such conditions real sector economy becomes weak, unstable, uncompetitive and stops being the master of the situation - its share in the economy and the financial structure is OVERRIDDEN or superseded by parasites who take money from a bottomless pit, increase inflation, consume without giving anything in return, kill the investing power of the real-sector capital. All those problems will be eliminated in Greece just as it was in the case of Russia in 1998 or in case of Argentine in 2002).   
As to the practical examples, there is almost a general consensus among the economists that 'developing' European countries who hadn't done this mistake of entering the eurozone feel themselves economically incomparably better off now. Poland is a glaring example of this.
As for the eurozone in particular and the EU in general, the problem is the same and very old: it is not a democratic formation, hence doesn't have enough legitimacy in the eyes of the nations, and hence tempt the euro-institutions and the governments (using the instruments) to usurp ever more and more powers weakening the national sovereign democracies: http://dr-world.blogspot.com/2011/01/few-words-about-eu-good-idea-but-in.html



Wednesday, October 26, 2011

How can the eurozone be saved by all these summits in the longer term?

What is the summit of the EC leaders about? Very simple: they're trying to figure out how much money they should 'print' through ECB and what proportion of the amount must be (can be reasonably safely) taken away from the taxpayers.
Just a bit of a recap: during the first decade of the 21th century German, French and British banks loaned trillions of euro to the Greek, Irish, Portugal etc banks and governments; the lion's share of those trillions settled in the pockets of the small capitalist elite who has the access to the money in the first place according to the beautiful system of the financial capitalism. Those countries went bust. And now the main headache of the so called 'leaders' or the EU is to decide who to refill the pockets of the banks-creditors by robbing 1. German and French taxpayer 2. Greek, Italian, Irish etc taxpayer. Their main problem is not Greek or German nation, their problem is the empty banks of course. (it makes perfect sense for the Greek to try to change Government and to get rid of euro as soon as possible, reintroduce and devalue their national currency, neither do I see any ethical problems with this). That's the European socialistic capitalism for you.
I am still very pessimistic about the prospect of the eurozone. I understand that they - those EU 'leaders' - can pump a substantial amount of taxpayers money into the commercial banks (though risking some kind of strike-back on the part of the ordinary people, whose money are used to save those banks but who don't get anything in return from them). They also can print some money. They can save one or more Southern countries from an immediate bankruptcy, BUT I cannot understand how on earth they can save TRUST of the market players in the whole system and in those bankrupt countries? Even with the success of the immediate rescue, who is gonna buy the Greek or Portugal treasuries in future? (except for highly speculative purposes).

Sunday, October 9, 2011

Occupy Wall Street is just the tip of the iceberg: social pact of the US is through


Occupy Wall Street is just the tip of the iceberg, only the start: the start of realization by the American people that 19th century capitalism and democracy have always been in conflict, and now in the 21th become incompatible completely. One voter one vote – one of the main democratic principles and requirements, which could never be further from the main realities and requirements of capitalism. Capitalism kills democracy. Americans realize that their state serves AGAINST their interests, that means against the nation (whether inadvertently or inadvertently – no matter).
All those corporations (especially financial ones and banks) have traditionally been pictured by the capitalism as the main feeding hand providing employment for Americans (who by the whole idea must feel themselves irredeemably indebted morally to those corporations up to the end of their life) and the main driver of the economy, society, science, technology - in one word nearly all of the American civilization. But now after the crisis struck it has transpired that it is the taxpayer - largely American people - who was FORCED by the STATE to save all those corporations (including also production corporations - all the auto-producers, which had been supposed before to be good and resilient because of the famous myth 'capitalism generates competition' and which turned out to be absolutely uncompetitive in the face of their much less 'capitalistic' competitors from Germany, Japan and South Korea). The record historic immorality and abomination of this situation is not only the fact, that those corporations don't take responsibility for their risks (the risks which were the main argument in favor of them having 'special' standing and powers in the society) and are saved at the expense of the ppl (whom they are gonna continue to rob right after coming around after 'near death experience') but because of POLITICAL capitalism, when the 'democratic' state helps those gamblers even in the hardest possible times. State is not even a neutral arbiter - NO! It's interests are dictated by corporations, not by American people, even in crises times and even with so called 'democratic' party at the helm. What is worth this kind of democracy? What is the social pact?! When the White House saved with the Americans' money those corporations at the peak of the crisis, those corporations didn't lift a finger to pay back in kind and save the aforementioned EMPLOYMENT, reduce foreclosures etc – ZERO responsibility, and quite understandably so. Rather on the contrary: they started to minimize the number of the very taxpayers working for them as well as their corporate taxes and got used even more the idea that taxpayer would save them in the last resort. Looks like one saves a bank with his money and then the bank comes and first thing takes away the home from that guy at a crisis time because of the overdue debt.
It is not only governmental, economic and capitalistic crisis, it is an unprecedented MORAL and IDEOLOGICAL crisis in the USA, because now it turns out de-facto that it's the wealthy who are saved and nurtured by the people and who give nothing in return and who are protected by the Government – parasitism in overdrive. The SOCIAL PACT of the American capitalistic model society is coming apart at the seams right before everyone's eyes: history in action. That's the 'too big to fail' problem for you.

Thursday, September 22, 2011

About killing of Troy Davis called in the US 'execution'

Killing Troy Davis is just another excellent example of public useless killings conducted by America INSIDE itself along with the killings conducted outside (be it in wars or secrete prisons). The fundamental cause is the same: the real attitude of the US to the value of human life still answers the standards of 19th century at best. In this sense - human life value - the US in the eyes of Europe looks like BARBARIANS.
In uncertainty you have two moral options: either just in case to leave a human being alive, OR just in case to KILL him. The US elects the latter, and shows the whole world its REAL attitude to human life. If one says that execution of Troy Davis is a shame for the US moral and legal image, it wouldn't be true cos the word shame isn't enough. The very presence of death penalty in the US shows that the mentality of the country in this sense is still in the 19th century, not in the 21th. But this concrete case shows the worth of 'rule of law' and particularly cynical disdain and devaluation of human life in the US.
Death penalty in the US - state authorized murder on behalf of all citizens, always reminds me of Christian origins & legacy of America...

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Israel stays on in the 20th century not noticing the millennial change

Very simple change: in the 20th century Israel's military aggression and occupation was at the expense of Arabs and to the benefit of Israelis, now in the 21th century it is the other way around. But Israel doesn't want even to see this, like an ostrich with its head in the sand. (here meant by Israel is its politically powerful elites, not its people. Ideologically, politically, economically even morally they - Israel political elites - want to remain in in the 20 century, but the reality hastens to disappoint them: this 'old rusty bicycle' of the war-and-xenophobia-based national mendacious ideology, policy-making, parasitic war-subsidy-driven economy from now on will more take (for 'repairs') than allow the nation to ride ahead like it was in the last century.
What changed for Israel at the beginning of the new century? Very simple: during decades of the second half of the 20th century Israel kept all the status-quot - sprawling occupation of Palestine and the endless smouldering war (whether it be war of weapons or threats or words) supporting its militaristic political and economic vital structure - AT THE EXPENSE OF PALESTINIANS and other peoples (including American taxpayers) and to the apparent economic and political benefit of Israel itself. Israel did it through sham peace negotiations and other kinds of political charade without ever bothering to make this charade look very truthful.
But Israel didn't notice one 'small' change: with the beginning of the 21th century the situation diametrically changed to the opposite: now every extra minute which Israel tries to linger in the 20th century goes AT THE EXPENSE of Israelis, their children and their future and TO THE BENEFIT of Palestinians and other Arabs. In this context a great change has come to the US - big brother of Israel - too - the same change: all the policy of American influence in the Middle East through support of Israel and support of dictators in the region brought apparent dividends to the US and was largely at the expense of Arab nations, but now the situation has changed diametrically to the opposite. But the difference is that America - at least starting from Obama's administration - seems, at least partly, to understand this problem and to start the transition and adaptation to the new realities of the 21th century.
But Israel is another story. Election of 'a dinosaur' like Binyamin Netanyahu as PM at a time when the task of belated well overdue reforms and transition even for most progressive and talented politicians posed a huge, painfully difficult challenge, was a real CATASTROPHE. Instead of at least running on the spot, Israel voted in a man not even from the 20th century, but almost from the 19th, just at the moment when for Israel a gulp of 'fresh air', a minimum life-supporting momentum was as necessary as life, just keep the movement ahead or at least not to fall behind too much. It was like taking pills for high blood pressure when actually having low pressure. I couldn't agree more with Mrs Tzipi Livni who flat out pointed out, that Netanyahu Govt brought Israel to a real disaster and to a never-seen-before isolation on the world arena.
Since in the 20th century Israel (with a great participation of the US) made the above status quot an existential feature of its economy and political life (this everlasting war became an absolute political and economic necessity, it became an integral condition for supporting national self-identity, compass of the collective national moral, a part of national ethos and ideology in generations), the above change and the problems ensuing too can be existential.
I hope that Israelis - especially young ones - will soon realize (before it's too late) that the main existential threat to Israel in the 21th century is posed by Israel and Israel itself only! If someone can destroy Israel it is Israel itself. Not guns, or bombs are now the main threat, but bad RELATIONS and lack of critical thinking. Israel can in this sense become a victim of its own guns and bombs - militaristic mentality and way of life. And this threat, unpleasant as it may appear to the younger generation to recognize, has been created, nursed and fostered by their parents and grandparents during the second half of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21th. In this sense, the 20th century generation of Israelis in large measure have lived economically and politically at the expense of their children and grand children borrowing from the future generations.
But now the main thing is to understand and recognize that this 'old comfortable bike', on which Israel teenage state joyfully and self-confidently rode through the 20th century,  stopped working and will never start again as in the past. Now, on the contrary, by the minute this old bike requires more and more for repairs and doesn't give a penny in return - neither economically, nor socially, nor politically etc. Now its Israel and Israelis who PAY for the military nationalism adventures (of the medieval type). Now it is America who pay for its Middle East adventures - the past and present ones. But America seems to have already realized this deplorable fact, whereas its teenager (spoiled rotten by America during decades) doesn't seem to have even begun to suspect that something is not as ever...
Of course, partly the success of Israel, as a quasi-state which cannot be considered a fully independent entity economically and politically even now, depends heavily on the US policy. Big brother US did Israel a terrible disservice in fact. I really hope that Obama or next presidents will be able once and for all openly to put an end to this absolutely obsolete and unjustified type of relationship with Israel - giving it absolute impunity and not letting it to account for its action like any other sovereign country before international community for it's actions. This unconditional friendship policy for the last several decades cost Israeli people, American people and the rest of the world thousands up on thousands of lives (directly and indirectly) and billions upon billions of dollars (in direct and indirect economic losses and expenditures). The human cost is can hardly be estimated. Yes the US must remain friends with Israel but this relationship must be an adult one.

WHAT AWAITS ISRAEL IF IT DOESN'T CHANGE?
In short, nothing good. I'm afraid you don't have to be Cassandra to predict some of the negative things that can be round the corner:
1. Young talented Israelis will continue to drain from Israel in ever increasing quantities. Brain drain - as simple as that (already now non-native Israelis are emigrating in alarming numbers, and the number of native young Israelis emigrating is significantly above the zero mark: see on this topic). This will take place not only because of the fundamentally flawed military-based economic system, but also because of the loss of belief in the future of the country - moral and trust hazard.
2. Demographic balance will continue to tip in favor of the Arab population - again, not only because of the economic factor, but because of the loss of belief in and hope for the future.
These problems could be increasingly exacerbated by a third factor which is not discussed very much, if at all: the Jews beyond Israel will be increasingly reluctant to give their support to Israel (economic as well as political support), because the younger generation of the American Jews (as well as those who live in countries other than the US) is not so ready to UNCONDITIONALLY identify themselves with the Jewish community in Israel and to UNCONDITIONALLY give their support to Israel. This young generation of the American Jews are much more pragmatic, liberal and critical in their ways. Conservatism is no longer in fashion like it was before, and such 'dinosaurs' like Benjamin Netanyahu - their rhetoric and policies - don't add up too much to closing this potentially opening rift between Israeli and Non-Israeli Jews and Israeli emigrants.
Israel will have to chose whether it wants to stay in the 20th century or even go back in time to middle ages with the chosen ethnicity-based model feeding on militaristic nationalism, or it wants a modern civil rights-based democracy, because these two ideologies and models are intrinsically INCOMPATIBLE. You just can't have them both. The sooner Israel recognizes this problem the better chances it has to stop the negative tendency. 

See also on the topic of Israel policy:
On Iran nuclear: http://dr-world.blogspot.com/2011/09/israel-stays-on-in-20th-century-not.html
On UN legitimization of Palestine: http://dr-world.blogspot.com/2011/09/palestine-turned-to-un-why-not-long.html
America's policy change towards Israel: http://dr-world.blogspot.com/2011/03/obamas-change.html

Friday, September 16, 2011

Palestine turned to UN: why not long before?

It is only surprising why Palestine haven't applied for statehood with the UN long long before with the full right and grounds to do so... Why is UN is here if not for this? To be honest, to grant a recognition to Palestine on the part of UN nation would be a much more legal and legitimate act than recognition of Kosovo or Libyan rebel government. So the procedure should have been initiated long ago and it is not a question weather it will succeed formally at once, it is a very important step to show that independence of Palestine is not a question of STRIKING A DEAL with Israel and that Israel being an AGGRESSOR AND OCCUPANT is a fact regardless of any deals or negotiations. The conflict between rapist and and his victim is not and cannot be a matter of bilateral negotiation between those two, especially with an involvement of a powerful friend of the rapist as a mediator - a friend, who supplies weapons for the rape. Independence and self-determination of Palestinian nation must be business of international community and intl. law ONLY, not one of an interested occupant party and its prejudiced friends like US (the number of those friend actually has dropped to and become limited to the US only till this moment). Likewise the role of Israel in the eyes of international community must be changed from just that of a party of 'civil matter negotiations' - someone like a strict father who is ostensibly to give some property to his bad son if he behaves - to an involved criminal usurper, for which all those negotiations are no more than a set of unrealizable conditions which a blackmailer gives to his victim just to continue the game and keep the victim from full despair and turning to the police. World community too after half a century of the Israeli occupation must come to its senses have the courage to recognize the difference between 'negotiations mistakes' and 'rape', between 'family quarrel' and 'child abuse' etc.
In other words it has become the case very long before now that the Israel-Palestine question has ceased to be an internal question of two parties, just like the question of Serbia and Kosovo or Turks and Greeks on Cyprus, Gaddafi and rebel government or any question of a raper and a victim - it CANNOT BE CONSIDERED ANY MORE and internal bilateral question - its the business of international community to decide. And the application for sovereignty by Palestine to UN must have been done long ago just to fix, to formally REGISTER the state of things, to make a formal statement that Palestine is raped AGAINST her wishes and this cannot be considered a 'usual family quarrel' any more

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

911 anniversary: terrorists celebrate victory

With great sadness one should recognize that the 9/11 attack on America by terrorists brought them a major victory beyond any expectations, if the results are to be judged critically.
Anti-American terrorists achieved their single most important goal: to TERRORIZE the USA, to force America with the power of fear and panic to change her ways, to act irrationally, to dent her own values, to kill even more American people in the form of American boys and girls in uniform, to forfeit her reputation and disfigure her image in the eyes of the whole world, to lose much of her weight and power because of weakening her international standing, to cripple the USA economically through an unprecedented, unbearable burden of war-related costs and lost momentum in the civil reinvestment, reforms and development, to mar her moral image and leadership in the eyes even the closest of her allies in the West.
Hardly ever could Osama and other terrorists have dreamed in their sweetest dreams that the killing of 3000 people at World Trade Center would be 'supplemented' by killing yet another 5000 American girls and boys in uniform; that the US get involved in two major wars at once; that the Americans would give in to panic so much that allow such 'pathological men' like Bush to rule 2 terms and to do the terrorist's work - intimidating people - for them; that Patriotic acts and other 'laws, Guantanamo, anti-Muslim hysteria in the American society would damage the very pillar of American liberal and humane values; that the corruption decay in power would bring such vermin like Dick Cheney, Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz to the highest positions of power, making the head of state not only the first mentally handicapped president of the USA for the first time in its history, but also bringing the rule of the superpower to the brink of being a puppet state. Hardly ever did the terrorists imagined that the ruling political elites would substitute for them and complete their task of terrorizing of America: they got a multiplier effect of unseen proportions in a case, where American Government happened to be a partner in the crime of terrorism, who just finished the task to an absolute ugly perfection.
Unfortunately its very very hard to assess the true 'cosmic' scale of the damage caused by the attack of 911  - precisely because its main aim of terrorizing of the American population and elites has been achieved, and the great country lost its ability to think RATIONALLY and CRITICALLY. Symbolically the terrorists could hardly have dared to hope that America wouldn't restore the twins to the former splendor, magnificence and beauty, demonstrating her real spiritual resistance, invulnerability and stubbornness: in contrast it was decided to make at this place a kind memorial to perpetuate the festering wound for many years ahead, demonstrating not the resilience, but the scale of damage and tragedy inflicted by those terrorists butchers. 
Having said that, I would also remind of the role of American Government in the incident. While there's no doubt that the terrorists acts were organized and executed by radical fundamentalists, the question of what the American Government KNEW before and whether it really WANTED to do everything in its power to prevent this attack is still a very big and important question. Unlike conspiracy theorists, who always blame governments in direct organization of some crimes against their nations, in reality governments DON'T NEED to do this to satisfy their interests: they just allow something to happen with a higher probability because of the knowledge and delayed reactions - something induced by the 'external' circumstances and forces. There's still a hell of a lot of questions about the role of the American government from this standpoint as well as about the 'selfless' hunt for Bin Laden, who, as everyone knew, had been sitting in Pakistan for many years, but was killed a year before reelection of the US president.
I hope that the American People will finally get to grips with their political Augean stables of their house and clean them. I hope that American people will really start fighting, not breeding, terror; and it will be done not by criminal opportunists like Cheney, not by the bull-headed blood-thirsty generals, but by PROFESSORS and SCIENTISTS in sociology, psychology and other fields.